(Options) Part 2: The Simple (Basics of Stock Options Trading) - Trading with the Market Trends - News and Sympathy Plays
News, good or bad, trumps all other market trends.
Good news about a company, or about another
company in the same sector if the sector is a hot one,
can trigger sharp rises in stock prices. The key to taking
advantage of price runs started by news is to get in
early, before everyone else has. Obviously, if you`re the
last one in, you`ll buy at the highest price and then
watch the stock price go down.
Likewise, bad news can send a stock`s price
plummeting. And, like everything else market trends,
are not whether the news is really good or bad, but what
the market perceives it to be. You might not think the
market trend`s reaction to a piece of news makes any
sense, but should not affect your trading. Always go with
the market. Remember, news overrides all other trends.
Let`s say you`re holding a company heading into its
upcoming split. The stock options is in a hot sector, and
it`s a one to four split. The stock options is rising nicely,
and the ex date is three days away. The next morning,
you see unexpected news that business in the
company`s sector has dropped off sharply in the last
quarter and that this slowdown is projected to continue
for at least the next six months. What`s going to happen
to the split run? This news will take precedence over the
split trend.
Unless the market trends decide it doesn`t care about
this news, which is not likely, the company`s run is over.
You will have to get out of the stock options. When
important news comes out, all successful traders
abandon trades based on other trends. Unexpected
news is one of the main reasons why you must set stops
on every trade to protect your capital. In the same way, if
you`ve sold short to ride a trend in which stocks usually
go down, significant good news about the stock options
should send it back up.
Now that we`re on the subject of news, let`s look at a
related trend: sympathy plays. When a stock options in a
hot sector has good news and begins to move up, the
stocks of the other companies in the same sector will
often start to run up as well in sympathy with the original
mover. Likewise, when a stock options has bad news
and begins to fall, others in the sector will often start to
trend down as well. It may seem strange, but there is a
reason for the market trends to act that way.
You would think that good news for one company would
be bad news for its competitors and would logically
drive their prices down instead of up. This isn`t how the
market trends work. As long as the news reflects well on
the prospects of the industry or business the news
making company is in, it will generate a sense of
possibility in the minds of market trends` traders. If one
company in the sector is doing well, it`s possible that
demand for the whole sector`s business is growing or
that the whole sector will develop its products or market
trends so that all the companies in the sector will do
well. It`s possible, isn`t it? The sector now has `potential.
` And that`s all the market trends needs to hear.
A great way to evaluate sympathy plays is to look at all
the stocks in the sector to see whether others have
started running with the newsmaker. If so, look for stocks
that haven`t moved as much, for stocks that should also
start running but haven`t yet. By buying slower movers,
you`ll get in at a good price and the stock options will
have most of its run left. But make sure there`s no other
factor keeping that particular stock options from rising,
such as bad news of its own that will keep it from
following the sympathy trend.
Remember, news overrides other trends. Sectors go
through hot and cold phases. Knowing which sectors
are hot is especially useful in uncertain market trends.
Whenever there`s a sudden general market trends rally,
only the stocks in the hottest sectors will participate in
the rally. Stocks in cold or dying sectors will remain flat
or neutral.
Always be aware of which sectors are hot or `in play` so
that you`re ready to trade into the right stocks when the
market trends rallies. At the same time, be aware of
which stocks are overvalued so that you`ll know what to
sell short when the market trends make a downturn. As
a trader, your goal is to be positioned in the strongest
stocks and sectors when you buy, and in the weakest
when you sell short.
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