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July 23, 2010
 I don't know, maybe it's poetic justice or just karma that Amazon should report disappointing results tonight with earnings well below estimates. Why? After I was labeled a cheater and was terminated from the Amazon Associates program, I had hoped for a little payback. I certainly did my part by vowing never to buy anything from Amazon and as much as I dislike Apple, rooting for iPad to crush Kindle.
Okay, enough vendetta venom. The fact is that Amazon does not have it as easy as it once did. Its marketplace is still solid, but poor economy and competition from the likes of eBay have been eroding its dominant position. Amazon's valuation is currently twice that of eBay.
Then, by Amazon's own admission, more people are buying digital editions rather than actual books. How can this be good news for Amazon? Such a shift to digital format lowers the barrier to entry for other competitors who would no longer need warehouses and shipping centers. Apple can start selling books for iPad right on the iTunes platform.
Finally, cloud computing hasn't turned out to be the golden goose it was once thought to be. Amazon certainly was a pioneer in cloud computing, but the early momentum has somewhat moderated now and competition from Microsoft and Google (which offers a free version) have probably had a dampening effect on Amazon platform's adoption rate.
Amazon shares are currently down some 10% in after-hours trading and it appears that its disappointing financial results will have a nauseating effect on the market on Friday. Even Microsoft's better-than-expected results may not be able to change that sour mood.
July 15, 2010
After missing the expected earnings and profits numbers, Google's shares are down 4% in after-hours trading. Apple's shares however are up by 1% in reverse sympathy.
Google Android is beginning to look like a real contender for Apple's ubiquitous iPhone, so the companies are now regarded as serious rivals. Bad news for one parlays into good news for the other.
With the options expiration tomorrow combined with the Google's earnings release, Apple's iPhone 4 antenna press conference, and BP's capping of the oil leak, the market should expect a busy and volatile day.
Related Article
July 6, 2010
 When I posted this blog entry about Apple crashing to $45 a share, I didn't expect the company that made that prediction, BAM Investor, to contact me about it.
But that's just what the company did and I managed to have a phone chat with the company boss, JG Savoldi about his astonishing forecast.
You can read about it in my Reality Check column on Financial Tech Spotlight.
Disclaimer: Financial Tech Spotlight is one of the sister sites of TMCnet.com, a network of sites owned by my employer, TMC.
June 24, 2010
 The market hasn't been feeling so well lately. Maybe it's the European crisis or the not so great news on jobs or the bad housing numbers or the gushing BP oil, or the brutal summer heat. It was yet another bad day with the Dow off 145 points or 1.4%.
What the market needs is a bit good news to cheer it up and it might have received that in the form of Oracle's earnings release tonight. Fresh off Sun's acquisition Oracle reported earnings of $0.46/share, handily beating the analysts' estimates. In response, Oracle's shares rose 4% in after-hours trading.
Oracle's good news could bode well for the market tomorrow, specially for the tech sector so we may finally see some solid gains. The rosy earnings could be interpreted as a signal that businesses have started robust spending. That should eventually translate into more hiring which is exactly what this economy needs to pull it out of its long malaise.
June 21, 2010
According to this article, citing a previously unknown investment/research company, BAM investor, Apple could fall to as low as $45/share within a few months based on their technical analysis.
Something tells me BAM investor needed a little publicity so they just dumped an outrageous claim on the wires and it received its due double-take. But can Apple really drop to $45/share from its current $270/share?
Sure it can. Anything is possible in the stock market. The DOW could also drop to 0, but chances of that happening is pretty low.
Apple has had a good (no, outstanding) run-up. Its out-sized market cap is based on a combination of optimism and momentum. No company can keep either factor going forever, so Apple, like many others will eventually face reality and its share price will get dragged into more realistic figures. That may be $100 or $120, but $45 just doesn't seem realistic. Yeah, it could happen but going by the same likelihood, it could hit $800.
June 2, 2010
As stated in my previous post, that 9.2% BP dividend yield was just wishful thinking. Now comes the word that lawmakers want BP to suspend any dividend payments because obviously the company has gotten one hell of a liability to deal with and paying the shareholders instead of the victims isn't going to sit well with anyone.
While BP shares rose modestly today in sympathy with the rest of the market which had a solid day, the news of the potential dividend cut will not please the investors and generally that's bad news for the stock.
More than likely BP shares will experience weakness tomorrow as a result. Right now about the only thing that can give BP a boost is sealing that oil well. Unless and until that happens the string of bad news will continue for BP.
I do wonder about one thing. If the outlook gets really nasty for BP, as in a risk of insolvency, will the British government step in with a bailout plan? Will the British public be in the mood for any more bailouts? Small chance, but a possibility nevertheless.
May 27, 2010
It's hard to believe, but today Apple's market cap of $222B is larger than that of Microsoft which finished at $219B. That makes Apple the biggest Tech company on the block today. Microsoft will probably reclaim the top spot tomorrow, but Steve Jobs must be happy to have surpassed its old nemesis.
And Google? Today its market cap stood at $151B. Still has a long way to go to catch up to the big guys. Don't shed any tears though, Google is much younger than the duo. It'll get there in due time.
May 20, 2010
With the stock market down about 4% today and tomorrow (Friday) being an options expiration day, market volatility is all but certain. Be on the right side of the May options bets and you could be rewarded handsomely, otherwise the losses could be heavy.
Here's my market prediction for Friday, down for most of the day and then going positive in the last 1-2 hours. It's a familiar pattern, I've seen it many times.
May 19, 2010
Just read this article on Fortune about predictions of gold prices falling to $800-$900/oz in the next 1-2 years. The justification being that with the world markets stabilizing, investment in gold will no longer be viewed as a prudent choice and investors will abandon the metal for more rewarding bets.
I don't see these predictions holding much weight. The fundamental issues that led to the most recent financial crisis are still largely unresolved, albeit temporarily patched, debt levels are still sky high and there are political uncertainties in Europe and US.
At $1,200/oz gold may be over-priced for a stable and calm world. Ours is anything but, and as long as that continues so does the marching onward and upward of gold prices. $2,000 may be a stretch but $1,500 is definitely within a striking distance.
May 10, 2010
 We knew it was coming, but I didn't expect the Europeans to pull off a rescue plan as early and as boldly as they did. Good for them and good for the markets which responded in kind by rocketing up today around the globe. Banking shares, specially the battered European ones, like ING, were on fire today.
Now we know that Europe means business defending its currency, the euro. The real test however will be in the coming days and weeks as the euphoria and wishful thinking subsides and reality is back to being front and center. Will the storm become a faint memory, or will this so called contagion return with a vengeance. We will see what we will see.
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