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profit margins (pardon the pun) if you don’t use leverage. And most
people won’t trade without leverage even if they can afford it. Do you
have $310,000 lying around to buy ten gold contracts at $310/oz.
outright? And even if you did and gold moved up $10/oz., your profit
would be $10,000, a mere 3% return. In the above margin example with
a total investment of $6,200 in gold futures and a profit of $10,000, your
return is 161%. Of course the downside is just as magnified with
margins. A $3 price drop in the contract’s price would result in a 1%
loss if you were an outright buyer. However the same $3 price drop in
gold contracts results in a 48% loss for you, almost half of your $6,200
original investment, if you bought your contracts on margin. You’ve
been warned! Leverage is a double-edged sword, but just about all
futures contracts are traded on margin.
Futures Categories
We have used gold in many of our sample cases because metals
provide pretty straightforward examples. If you look at relevant
sections of financial publications and papers you will undoubtedly
notice that futures are categorized in many different ways.Which ones
are correct? Who knows. I like to take a broad view of them, and as such
I divide futures into three main categories: Financial, Natural
Resources, and Agricultural.
Financial
This category, as suggested by its name, deals with hard money
instruments. The supplies of the underlying commodities can often be
modified by quick human intervention, and therefore these futures are
not directly affected by natural disasters (although indirectly,
everything affects everything). These include interest rates, equity
indices, precious metals, and currencies among others. As an example,
the Federal Reserve can manipulate interest rates by infusing currency …
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