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Page 33

wholesale level, and which are ultimately used for products sold at the retail level. A rise in PPI gives an early indication of rising inflation.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Reported monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI gauges the overall rate of price change for goods and services such as food and beverages, apparel, transportation, entertainment, education, and personal care products. The CPI is often regarded as the benchmark value to gauge inflation since it covers a broad range of product prices at the retail level. As would be expected, a rise in CPI means a rise in inflation.

Consumer Credit - Reported monthly by the Fed, this indicator measures the amount of debt taken on by the consumers excluding housing (e.g. automobiles, credit cards, etc.). An increase in consumer credit signals a rise in demand for goods and services contributing to increased inflation.

Retail Sales - Produced monthly by the Commerce Department, this report measures the total net sales of retail stores. An increase in retail sales signifies a rise in consumer spending which may give a boost to inflation.

Factory Orders - This is reported monthly by the Commerce Department and measures the total volume of orders received by factories. It also includes inventory and backlog data for the manufacturing sector. A rise in factory orders can signal higher inflation.

Durable Goods Orders - This is also reported monthly by the Commerce Department and measures the orders placed for big ticket items such as cars, large appliances, and computers. A rise in durable goods orders indicates strength in the manufacturing sector as well as a rise in consumer confidence in the economy, since big ticket items generally carry large price tags. Such a rise could signify a possible upward move for inflation.

Consumer Sentiment Index - Published semi-monthly by the University of Michigan, it indicates the optimism level of the


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