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Exchange Rate - Since 1973 exchange rates have had a floating
characteristic as opposed to being fixed by the governments. This makes
them subject to constant volatility caused by various factors. One
important factor contributing to this volatility is the interest rates level,
which is adjusted by the Fed in response to inflation among other
factors. So it can be argued that economic conditions drive the
exchange rate rather than the other way around. Nevertheless, changes
in exchange rates affect a number of areas such as imports and exports,
tourism, and finance. These effects can in turn contribute to price
changes in goods and services and therefore the overall economic trend,
including the possibility of an inflationary condition. (Note:
Historically hints of changing interest rates have shown to have an
immediate effect on exchange rates. For example, it is believed that
when interest rates in a given country indicate a rise, that country's
currency rises in value as more investors stock up on the currency to
profit from the higher rates, thereby strengthening the currency.
However this theory does not always hold true. The flip side of this
scenario is that, faced with higher interest rates, the domestic businesses
may not be able to borrow enough money to expand their businesses.
Combined with lower consumer spending, the higher interest rates may
contribute to undermining the local economy. And a weakened
economy stands a chance of having its currency devalued.)
Again, the aforementioned indicators are just a sample (but a good
sample) of many economic indicators that can be utilized to assess the
strength and the trend of the economy.Many economists and economic
analysts spend their careers forecasting these indicators before they are
reported, causing the markets to adjust themselves based on their
predictions. That is the reason why often the release of these reports is
not met with much reaction. But there are times when an indicator
comes in above or below expectations and can jolt the markets if it
differs significantly from the forecasts. …
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